why aren't all 8 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public
record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable
ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't;
assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card:
▮▮▮▮▮ certainty ·
▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Opinion
Evans: Streaming lacks winner-take-all dynamics, protecting Disney and HBO
“This is like, there's not a winner takes all dynamic here. They're just one of many TV companies. And getting bigger and having more money does not mean that they can blow Netflix, that they can blow Disney and HBO out of the water.”
Opinion
Evans: Disney+ succeeds or fails on content and pricing, not app execution
“Disney Plus sinks or swims on what shows, and what movies, and what rights, and what go-to-market, and what pricing, and what churn, what acquisition cost. It does not sink or swim on the decisions they make in the execution of the app.”
Opinion
Evans: Netflix gaming expansion is an ineffective brand extension
“Games, I'm really skeptical of the idea that, like, I just feel like a brand extension too far. I mean, I know, like, the whole, like, yes, everyone's a gamer now thing, but, like, I'm gonna sign up to Netflix, and I hear, like, they're spending a fortune, lik…”
Insight
Evans: Netflix faces television industry problems, not tech problems
“Netflix, all the questions are TV questions, like what shows, what light structures, what talent, how do they compete with Disney, what's HBO going to do, you know, what's their share of production in the UK, what happens if France starts regulating them, not …”
Opinion
Evans: Adobe copied Disney's playbook by acquiring all cool creative tools
“Adobe has basically done what Disney did in movies. They bought all the cool shit, and it's all Adobe.”
Assertion Supported
Top US streamers individually outspend all major European broadcasters combined
“Fifteen billion dollars a year, which is what Netflix, for the sake of argument, what Netflix spends, and close to what Amazon spends. It's also what Disney spend, if you exclude sport. That's more than production budgets for the top, all broadcasters in the t…”
Assertion Supported
Evans: Netflix spends roughly $15B annually on content, second only to Disney
“It's you're buying, you're subscribed to Netflix because they spend 50, roughly fifteen billion dollars a year commissioning content, which is more than anybody in the US except Disney.”
Assertion Supported
Benedict Evans: Disney spends ~$20B on content annually, Comcast ~$15B
“Well, it turns out Disney probably spends 20, Comcast maybe spends 15, everybody else spends less. If you don't ask that question, the 15 doesn't tell you anything.”