why aren't all 9 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public
record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable
ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't;
assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card:
▮▮▮▮▮ certainty ·
▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Insight
Evans: The tech industry compulsively shouts buzzwords like Tourette's syndrome
“I sometimes say that the tech industry has Tourette's and instead of people chatting swear words, they shout like bots or voice or
Autonomous cars.
Yes.
Clubhouse.
Clubhouse.
Clubhouse.
and certainly that's the word of the moment.”
Insight
Evans: Clubhouse cannot sustain a 10% cut without proprietary network effects
“Clubhouse needs to build a network, otherwise they can't sustain 10%, and of course Twitter has just bought a newsletter company to try and do that for you. And charge five percent instead of 10%.”
Opinion
Evans: Clubhouse outcome is binary, either going to zero or $50 billion
“Is this worth a billion dollars? No. It's either going to go to zero, or it's going to go to 10, or 50, or 20, or something.”
Insight
Evans: Substack and Clubhouse relied on Twitter audience funnels
“Clubhouse, while you were driving people to Clubhouse from your Twitter account. To begin with, because it didn't really have a network, and it was, you know, that was one of the things they had to try and build, was to build a network. And the same thing with…”
Insight
Caron-Brown: Creators without direct email lists do not own audience
“If you don't own your actual email list, you don't actually have that audience because you could lose it. If clubhouse goes tomorrow, People lose their audience that they've built there if they haven't built it outside.”
Insight
Evans: Clubhouse functions as a Napster for conference panels
“But it's clearly, amongst other things, like a Napster for conferences, for conference panels. Something I've said several times before was conferences are like a bundle of, there's presentations, there's panels, there's talking in the hallways, there's the si…”
Opinion
Evans: Clubhouse recaptures early Twitter's unstructured, informal conversations
“Clubhouse has quite a lot of that vibe of, like, you can have these dynamic new freeform conversations. There's no pressure. You can jump in. You can jump out. It doesn't have to be structured. You don't have to write 10 paragraphs and run it through past PR.”
Insight
Evans: Substack and Clubhouse stars succeed by importing existing audiences
“And they spent 20 years, like, building that audience, and then they can take, put that audience in the knapsack and take it to Clubhouse, and take it to Sostak.”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Evans: Clubhouse will suffer waves of unanticipated abuse mechanics
“But yeah, they will have waves of abuse. They will have waves of mechanics that you haven't occurred to you just as Twitter did and never did anything about which is what killed that, that use of Twitter.”