The Ledger

Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.

clear all ✕

why aren't all 5 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable

Prediction Held up
Apple will maintain Google defaults while routing specialized queries to AI
“Apple will carry on treating Google as the default general search engine. They'll just peel more stuff out into their own foundation model or into chat TPT or into booking.com.”
Benedict Evans Aug 19, 2024 ▶ 30:15 Google's Antitrust case
Assertion Supported
Evans: 33% to 50% tried ChatGPT, but daily active users are 1% to 5%
“And the top line is basically that in a bunch of developed world countries, something between a third to a half of people have already tried ChatGPT. And so that's a very glass half full kind of statement. On the other hand, the number of people you've turned …”
Benedict Evans Jul 1, 2024 ▶ 13:04 The AI summer
Assertion Supported
Evans: ChatGPT traffic dropped over summer 2023 because students went on break
“This is the reason why ChatGPT traffic fell off last summer, because all the kids went home from school.”
Benedict Evans Apr 1, 2024 ▶ 26:13 Looking for AI use-cases
Assertion Supported
Evans: Pew data shows 18% of US adults have used ChatGPT
“US adults, 18% have used chat GPT ever, and 33% of 18 to 29, up to 43% have used ever.”
Benedict Evans Apr 1, 2024 ▶ 0:27 Looking for AI use-cases
Assertion Supported
Evans: Roughly one-third of Americans under 30 use ChatGPT for work
“Something like a third of Americans aged under 30 have used it for work for some reason.”
Benedict Evans Apr 1, 2024 ▶ 0:48 Looking for AI use-cases
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