why aren't all 9 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public
record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable
ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't;
assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card:
▮▮▮▮▮ certainty ·
▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Insight
Evans: AI summarizing content without referral traffic makes publisher expropriation claims valid
“And it's not, now they actually are using the content and not sending the traffic to the newspaper. And so that whole newspaper argument that you are using our content goes from being dishonest nonsense to being actually true.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Competitors cannot afford to match Google's default search distribution payments
“Well, no one can afford to match what Google's paying and even Bing, because in fact their monetization per search is worse for the same reason that their search engine results are worse, and no startup could afford to spend a billion dollars a year building i…”
Opinion
Spinning out Android as a Google antitrust remedy is structurally irrelevant
“Spinning out Android to me is, like, completely irrelevant, because, like, read back what I just said, like, if Android's a separate company, that's not, why is it going to choose Bing? It's going to have the same decision process that Motorola does.”
Opinion
Ending Google default search payments will not automatically improve Microsoft Bing
“There's nothing, nothing in ending the TOC per se that is going to make Bing better.”
Assertion Supported
Microsoft invested $100 billion in Bing over 20 years for 5-10% share
“Bing has invested about a hundred billion dollars over the last 20 years, and they've got 10%, five to 10% share of US search.”
Prediction Held up
Evans: AI search answers will drain web traffic from lifestyle publishers
“But if I'm going to say, you know, write me an itinerary for hotels, restaurants, and architecture in Barcelona, I'm going to get, that's going to produce less click-through, and so that's going to be less traffic for Condé Nast Traveler, it's going to be less…”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Evans: Google's AI search will likely be better than Microsoft Bing's
“And one should presume that it's not that Google's version of doing this will be worse than Bing's, in fact it wouldn't surprise me if Google's version of doing this will be better”
Opinion
Evans: Google has always stayed years ahead of Bing
“Google has been sort of two or three years ahead of Bing, and has always been two or three years ahead of Bing, and Bing never had a hope of catching up.”
Insight
Cowan-Brown: Bing has nothing to lose against Google in search
“Microsoft and Bing had absolutely nothing to lose, but Google is on that back foot of we do have something to lose here”