The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
why aren't all 7 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Evans: OpenAI and Anthropic lack distribution and cannot out-innovate startup ecosystem
“You don't have the existing feature set that Google and Meta and Microsoft and Apple and Amazon and everybody else have where they can add it and Salesforce and, you know, Workday and, you know, Figma and everyone else, some of them, some of which will survive…”
Evans: AI product heads cannot set roadmaps because research breakthroughs dictate capabilities
“What that's saying is the head of product isn't setting the product strategy and has no idea what the product is going to be in a month's time. Because there's going to be stuff coming out of the research lab that they don't know about, that the research lab d…”
Evans: Anthropic Leads AI Frontier, OpenAI and Gemini Trail by 5%
“Because right now we've got, you know, Anthropics ahead at the moment. We have OpenAI and Gemini five percent behind, like not far behind. Grok just, SpaceX Grok Nazi model just came out with like a model that's in like the top At the top of some of the benchm…”
Evans: Anthropic and OpenAI job exposure scores are self-deception
“Because Anthropic does this thing, and OpenAI have done these things based on sort of US census data where they try and put like a numeric score job by job of exposure to AI. Which seems to me just absolutely ludicrous as an exercise in sort of self-deception …”
Evans: Survey data shows Claude holds between 0% and 1% consumer usage
“If you look at the, you know, survey data on usage, it's,
It's ChatGPT, and then it's sort of two-thirds of that to a half of that is Gemini and Meta AI.
Even though Meta AI is a fiasco, Llama IV was a fiasco, the new models haven't launched yet, but consume…”
Evans: Replacing enterprise software like SAP with Claude is foolish
“Everyone who works in enterprise software and knows anything about it, kind of put their head in their hands and said, oh my God, do I actually have to explain why this is dumb? Is, you know, you'll use Claude instead of SAP. Fine. If you need me to explain th…”
Evans: Consumers lack obvious reasons to prefer one AI chatbot over another
“The point is, whatever your use case is for ChatGPT, there's not any particularly obvious reason why you'd be using ChatGPT versus Anthropic versus Meta.ai versus Gemini, and certainly not why you'll stick with it over the next, you know, six months or a year,…”