Tech Operates on 15-Year Paradigm Shift Cycles
Benedict Evans · What comes next? · Dec 22, 2020 · at 1:41
Benedict Evans outlines the historical cadence of dominant computing waves from the 1960s to 2020.
0:00 / 0:28exact quote · 28.6s
720p mp4 · rendered on demand · StarZero watermark
“The tech industry has sort of had one of these central agendas sort of every 15 years or so for the last, you know, probably since the sixties. So mainframes are the center of the tech industry from the sixties through to the seventies, then the PC from the mid to late seventies through to the really through to the beginning of the web in the early nineties. Then the web is the center of the tech industry from the nineties through to sort of, well, really the iPhone is 2007. And then 2000, say 2010 until now the iPhone has, and the smartphone has set the agenda.”
quote is from the automated transcript, cleaned for reading: filler sounds and stutters are removed, nothing is rephrased. names can be misheard (the analysis reads context, assessments check outside sources). how →
More from Benedict Evans
Evans: Creators most upset about AI art lack originality
“The really unkind thing one could say is that the people who are most upset about AI art are the people who are making stuff that has no particular authenticity originality. I mean, if you, if you've made, if you wrote 10 vampire romance books last year and yo…”
Evans: The Cambridge Analytica scandal was basically a hoax
“And of course the irony of Cambridge Analytica was it was, in the end, it was basically a hoax. There was nothing there.”
Evans: Skeptics dismissing AI as useless or like NFTs are ignoring reality
“The real idiots are the people who are just saying, oh, none of this works, and it's all nonsense, and it's just a stochastic parrot, and it's useless, and I don't know what it's for and this is all, like, nonsense, and this is a rerun of NFTs. Because these p…”
The DOJ gerrymandered its market definition in the Apple antitrust lawsuit
“The DOJ is suing Apple for having what the DOJ, claiming the DOJ describes as a monopoly of, quote, performance smartphones, which Apple described as gerrymandering, and I'm kind of inclined to agree”