The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
why aren't all 8 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Schoening: Software will shift back toward 1990s-style general tools as a service
“I suspect that software will go more back into the nineties of general tools, word processor, spreadsheet, FileMaker Pro that kind of thing, but those will still be as a service. And then you'll still have specialized tools around security and so on”
Schoening: AI for Knowledge Work Will Reach 'Good Enough' Intelligence
“I think for a lot of knowledge work tasks, probably sometime we'll get to good enough. And once you get to good enough, then you can optimize other things. Like they run locally, they're cheaper, they're faster.”
Schoening: AI role merging risks eliminating deep tech specialists
“I think if we're not careful, we will lose specialists.”
Schoening: Some Notion Designers Are Using Figma Less
“On one hand, I do see like sort of a drop in usage of Figma in some designers at Notion.”
Schoening: Companies will confront uncomfortable AI ROI questions within 6-12 months
“I do suspect in six to 12 months from now, a lot of companies are going to actually start asking questions around RRI, and I think that will be an uncomfortable conversation for a lot of folks.”
Schoening: Cheaper code generation will push software engineering into all business domains
“If the cost of software and creating software and encoding business practices in code, and like, I just literally mean the old, like software, one point no kind of code. Then if that cost is very much going to zero, we will just have a lot more of it. And so I…”