The Ledger

Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.

clear all ✕

why aren't all 4 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable

Prediction Not checkable as stated
Lochhead: Zuckerberg will blow over $1B on Threads, and it will fail
“Zuckerberg is going to blow in excess of a billion dollars on threads, and it will fail. It already has failed, because you can't take an existing problem with an existing solution, launch exactly the same shit, tell the world it's better, and have the world e…”
Christopher Lochhead Sep 17, 2023 ▶ 34:25 How to become a category pirate | Christopher Lochhead (Author of Play Bigger, Niche Down, more)
Assertion Supported
Bier: Hitting #1 in US App Store can now require 300K daily installs
“It used to be, like, a 100,080 to a 100,000 installs but now you have these companies that are just spending extraordinary amounts on ads and, or injecting it into one of their other apps. So between Threads, Timu, and all these other apps that are kind of spe…”
Nikita Bier Aug 25, 2024 ▶ 24:17 How to consistently go viral: Nikita Bier’s playbook for winning at consumer apps
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Threads will beat Twitter by winning the advertising revenue spiral
“I mean, Threads will prosper, I believe, and again, you know, it'll just be another click for advertisers who understand the Facebook marketplace versus The Twitter ad marketplace is much harder to access. So I think the way Treads wins is the revenue spiral v…”
Oji Udezue Sep 14, 2023 ▶ 49:43 Picking sharp problems, increasing virality, and unique product frameworks | Oji Udezue (Typeform)
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Lovinsky: Meta's New Product Experimentation team constantly explored Threads-like concepts
“Things like threads and ideas like threads were in that team all of the time.”
Noam Lovinsky Mar 17, 2024 ▶ 45:22 The happiness and pain of product management | Noam Lovinsky (Grammarly, FB, Thumbtack, YT)
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