why aren't all 10 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public
record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable
ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't;
assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card:
▮▮▮▮▮ certainty ·
▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Assertion Contradicted
Balfour: Cursor overtook GitHub Copilot's market share in under nine months
“And so it's amazing to see something like cursor overtake market share of something like GitHub co-pilot in nine months or less, right? Like that, that's how fast it happened.”
Prediction Held up
Schulhoff: Autonomous AI coding agents will suffer prompt-injection code exploits
“We're just going to see these things get deployed and they're going to be broken. So there's a lot of like AI coding agents out there. There's Cursor, there's, I guess, Windsurf, Devon, Copilot. So all of those tools exist and they can do things right now Like…”
Assertion Partly supported
Rachitsky: AI coding startup Cursor hit $300M ARR in two years
“I just saw that Cursor hit three hundred million ARR in two years.”
Assertion Supported
Ward: Work samples predict success better than traditional across-the-table interviews
“Research has shown that work samples are the highest predictor of success at a company, but yet most companies are still spending a lot of time doing one-to-one across the table assessments.”
Prediction Held up
Balfour: Cursor is on track to launch a developer agent platform
“Cursor is very clear, like cursor's on the path to also probably create some type of agent platform, right? For developers. So that'll be like a smaller ecosystem to play in for some products.”
Assertion Supported
Masad: Cursor requires a separate runtime and deployment environment
“Cursor is a fork of VS code that's made that has really awesome AI tools, but that's an editor. You still need run time. You still need a deployment environment.”
Assertion Supported
Ugarte: Cursor scaled from 15 to over 1,000 employees before joining SpaceXAI
“When I joined Cursor originally, we were about 15 people. We scaled to about, to over a thousand. And then now we're a part of SpaceX AI, which is kind of an even bigger organization.”
Assertion Supported
Truell: Cursor's team is approaching 60 employees
“So we are going on 60 people.”
Assertion Supported
Rachitsky: v0 ranked just behind Cursor and GitHub in survey
“I did the survey recently where I asked my readers, what tools do you use most in your day-to-day work as a product builder, as a product manager? And in the category of engineering tools vZero came in right below cursor and GitHub for people's most used AI bu…”
Assertion Supported
Rachitsky: 17% of surveyed newsletter readers already use Cursor
“17% of all people that read my newsletter use cursor already, which is absurd.”