why aren't all 22 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public
record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable
ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't;
assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card:
▮▮▮▮▮ certainty ·
▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Simons: Bolt grew from zero to over $30M ARR in 4.5 months
“In the first two months, we went from zero to twenty million of ARR. And I think we're on like month four or four and a half or something like that at this point. And we've already crossed thirty million of ARR and we're on the verge of crossing 40.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Simons: Cursor is the only code-gen startup ahead of Bolt in revenue
“Our company wasn't doing AI stuff the six months ago, we had no AI products and just out of nowhere, we you know, From almost death of the company to being, you know, the number one by traffic revenue, et cetera, like, you know, AI co-gen app that's, you know,…”
Opinion
Simons: Prototyping in Bolt is faster than using Figma
“Now it's faster to do this with bolt in code and have a real working software products than Dragging around frames in Figma to actually make a static version of it.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Claude 3.5 Sonnet was the first model reliable enough for AI coding
“Sonnet was, you know, Sonnet was the, really the first model that flipped the equation because that was really us and all cursor and all these other things. The rapid growth started the second sauna went online, right? Like we actually tried building bull like…”
Insight
Arnovitz: Non-technical builders should progress gradually from ChatGPT to Cursor
“I think if you see this where I'm working like in Claude or in cursor, you might be excited to start using those, but I would really recommend starting slow with a GPT project. Beautiful UI, super simple, then maybe graduate to like a bolt or a lovable. And th…”
Assertion Partly supported
Lemkin: Bolt reached $50M from zero in six months
“One of my old sales guys run sales there. And I talked to him when they went from zero to fifty million in like six months”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Competing web-based dev tools rely on slow, fragile cloud servers
“Everyone else runs those things on cloud servers, which they, those can take minutes to boot up and they often will run into issues.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Simons: Anthropic ran out of GPUs to supply Bolt post-launch
“The servers were just melting anthropic. Ran out of GPUs for us. Like Dario emailed me. He was like, listen, we just, we don't have anything more to give you at the times”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Simons: Bolt forecasts reaching $100M ARR within the year
“Our forecast for the year is we want to get to a hundred million of ARR.”
Disclosure
Simons: 67% of Bolt users are non-developers
“And we just kept seeing more and more and more people that were not developers using it to the point where it's like 70, 67% of our users are not developers, right? At this point.”
Assertion Supported
Bolt runs a full operating system locally inside the user's web browser
“With bold, we like in the past seven years, what our company has been doing has been building an operating system that runs inside of your browser locally using your CPU.”
Insight
Arnovitz: AI coding tools differ by harness, not underlying model
“The main difference between all these tools is basically the harness. So the models are all the same models. You know, I I'll run Claude within cursor. I'll run it within Claude code. And it's also the models that Claude is also the model that is underlying Bo…”
Insight
Simons: Prompt AI coding tools like writing Linear tickets for developers
“I would say talk to this thing like you do a linear ticket or a G or a ticket. That, that would be my advice is like in our order and talk to this, like you would like, you're talking to one of the developers on your team. Right. And what that means is be spec…”
Disclosure
Simons: StackBlitz runs Bolt with 15-20 people and 3 support staff
“And our team's like 15, 20 people, you know, so it's just dealing with you know, we're going to be closing on like a 100,000 customers and we got our support teams, like three people.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Simons: Bolt generates personal websites zero-shot 99.999% of the time
“It zero shot, 99.999% of the time. Like you're getting a beautiful personal website that you didn't have before that would have taken you an hour on Wix.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Simons: Bolt reached $20M ARR without mobile responsiveness
“We got the twenty million of ARR without a mobile responsive view, by the way.”
Insight
Simons: AI coding agents fail on codebases exceeding 1,000 files
“These LLMs are not great depending on how big your application is though, right? These things are not quite there where if you have something that's, you know a thousand files or something or more Where you're going to be able to have a really reliable, super …”
Disclosure
Simons: Prepending bolt.new to Figma URLs converts designs into full-stack apps
“So on any fig my URL, when you're looking at like a, you know, a design that you've made if you just put bolt.new in front of that URL and hit enter, it's gonna suck that design into bolt and turn it into a full stack app or mobile app just.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Simons: Bolt reached 3M registered users and 1M MAUs within months
“Like we've added, you know, three million registered users, you know, just in the past few months here. And you know, monthly active users is, you know, around a million, I think at this point per month.”
Disclosure
Bolt is developing an agentic Slack bot to act as team developer
“We're actually creating a you know, like a bolt, like Slack bot that's whose job is to Basically act like a developer on your team. And so you can be like, in a thread, you can be like, Hey, I think we should add a homepage. It's like, yeah, okay. Like at bolt…”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Simons: Thousands of mobile apps are created daily on Bolt
“And now just, there's just. You know, thousands of mobile apps being created a day that weren't before.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Simons: StackBlitz built Bolt in 90 days
“We built the thing in 90 days. We built Bolton.”