Evans: AI forecasting is purely speculative because we lack core theories
Benedict Evans · The most rational take on AI you’ll hear this year · May 31, 2026 · at 26:46
Benedict Evans, independent tech analyst and former a16z partner, discusses the uncertainty and lack of theoretical grounding around AI progress with Lenny Rachitsky.
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“We have no theory of what human intelligence is. We have no theory of why these models work so well. We have no theory of how much better they will get. So we're all just kind of vibes forecasting as to what will happen.”
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