The Ledger

Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.

clear all ✕

why aren't all 3 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 3 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable

Prediction Open · timeframe Apr 2031
Future AI Will Autonomously Execute Long-Term Scientific Research Campaigns
“Future AIs would behave in the same way. Task, for example, to help solve energy scarcity by inventing a superconductor, an AI might draw up a reading list, conduct experiments, invent novel materials, and so on. Pursuing its goal over the space of a year or m…”
David Senra Apr 1, 2026 ▶ 53:50 The Relentless Missionary Creating AGI: Demis Hassabis
Prediction Open · timeframe Apr 2028
Todd Graves Plans to Expand Raising Cane's to Thousands of Stores
“This guy's gonna have thousands of stores.”
David Senra Apr 4, 2025 ▶ 7:29 Todd Graves and His $10 Billion Chicken Finger Dream
Prediction Open · timeframe Dec 2028
Koenigsegg will build 1.5x its 20-year historical production in three years
“Right now, the company's actually gearing up, and in the last few years, they're gonna build 1.5 times as many cars in the next three years as it has in the past 20.”
David Senra Dec 3, 2025 ▶ 39:38 The Genius of Christian von Koenigsegg
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