The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
why aren't all 11 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 3 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Future AI Will Autonomously Execute Long-Term Scientific Research Campaigns
“Future AIs would behave in the same way. Task, for example, to help solve energy scarcity by inventing a superconductor, an AI might draw up a reading list, conduct experiments, invent novel materials, and so on. Pursuing its goal over the space of a year or m…”
Peterffy predicted in 1971 that automated systems would replace floor traders
“As soon as this electronic brain is hooked up to its voice box so it can answer the phone, staff will be able to go on a permanent vacation.”
Munger predicts device-distracted multitaskers will achieve far less success than Buffett
“Look at this generation with all of its electronic devices and multitasking. I will confidently predict less success than Warren, who just focused on reading.”
Graham: Technology will continuously widen individual productivity and wealth variance
“Technology is just going to lead to a more, an ever increasing variance in the amount of productivity that one person could have, and therefore an ever increasing variance in the amount of wealth that one person has and one person doesn't.”
Graham: Failing to understand wealth creation could trigger major social unrest
“If society doesn't catch up to understanding that wealth is not finite and something that should be growing over time, it could lead to a lot of, you know, social unrest and cultural issues.”
Jobs in 2011: Apple's brightest and most innovative days are ahead
“I believe Apple's brightest and most innovative days are ahead of it, and I look forward to watching and contributing to its success in a new role.”
Todd Graves Plans to Expand Raising Cane's to Thousands of Stores
“This guy's gonna have thousands of stores.”
Senra: Emerging technology will enable one-person filmmakers
“Especially with all these new technologies, basically you're gonna have one person like filmmakers, because they're gonna use all this technology.”
Jobs (1984): Every future computer will inevitably work like the Macintosh
“I remember the week before we launched the Mac, we all got together and we said, every computer is going to work this way. You cannot argue about that anymore. You can argue about how long it will take, but you can't argue about it anymore. It is inevitable.”