why aren't all 60 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public
record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable
ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't;
assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card:
▮▮▮▮▮ certainty ·
▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Assertion Contradicted
High IQ is the CEO trait most correlated with organizational success
“The CEO trait most closely correlated with organizational success is a high IQ.”
Assertion Contradicted
Psychiatrist David Shaffer claims his ex-wife Anna Wintour is incapable of empathy
“Her ex-husband, whose name's David Schaefer, he's the psychiatrist. He's been on record. He says that a lot of people debate, like, does Anna have the ability to empathize with other people? And he says very clearly that Anna is not capable of empathy.”
Assertion Contradicted
Ferrero's workforce never went on strike in over 70 years
“And remarkably in over 70 years of operations, Ferraro's workforce never went on strike, which was unheard of at the time and in the location, which he's building his company, a virtually unheard of record in their industry.”
Assertion Contradicted
Jerry Jones Came Up Empty on Only One of Over 200 Wells
“Jones and McCoy had drilled more than 200 wells, and they had come up empty on exactly one.”
Assertion Contradicted
James J. Hill was the only American railroad builder to avoid bankruptcy
“James J. Hill was the only American Railroad entrepreneur in history to build a railroad and never go bankrupt.”
Assertion Contradicted
Blackstone Financed $32B Zell Buyout Across 16 Banks to Block Rivals
“The fact that they decided to finance their thirty two billion dollar offer with six Team banks at two billion dollars each instead of three banks at ten billion dollars each might have suggested. Perhaps They were thinking that if they could get 16 banks for …”
Assertion Contradicted
James Cameron Turned Down a Seat on the Ill-Fated Columbia Shuttle
“The punchline is, the shuttle mission that I refused? It was the Columbia.”
Assertion Contradicted
Senra: David Ogilvy built his advertising agency on Claude Hopkins' work
“And David Overby said, essentially, like, he built the foundation for his giant advertising agency that he founded, just on the work alone of Claude Hopkins.”
Assertion Contradicted
Senra: Albert Lasker locked Hopkins' manuscript in a safe for 20 years
“Albert Lasker read the book, told Claude Hopkins, absolutely not. You are not publishing this book. This is giving away all of our secrets. You have to wait until I'm done making all this money. Albert Lasker put the book into a safe for 20 years.”
Assertion Contradicted
The Rothschild Banking Dynasty Never Allowed Outsiders to Inspect Archives
“The Rothschilds never let any outsider go through their archives.”
Assertion Contradicted
Bowerman coached more sub-four-minute milers than any other coach
“Bowerman coached more sub four minute milers than anybody ever.”
Assertion Contradicted
Senra: Jensen Huang is tech's longest-running founder CEO
“Jensen is the longest running founder CEO of a tech company in the world.”
Assertion Contradicted
Michelin Invented the World's First Removable Pneumatic Tires in 1891
“No one else in the world had this invention at the time.”
Assertion Contradicted
CAA captured a 75% market share within its first 10 years
“I think it was within, like, the first 10 years of founding of CAA, and they had, like, a 75% market share of their entire industry”
Assertion Contradicted
CAA was the first talent agency to package feature films
“We've grown so big enough that we were able to package movies with multiple clients, which was a common practice in television, but not in film. Nobody was doing this in film. CAA was the first to orchestrate the entire development process.”
Assertion Contradicted
Michael Ovitz Captured 75% Talent Agency Market Share Within CAA’s First Decade
“Within the first 10 years of CAA, 10 years after founding the company, they had like something like 75% market share. Of, you know, his industry.”
Assertion Contradicted
Four Brentwood Gas Wells Fully Funded Jerry Jones's Dallas Cowboys Purchase
“So I went over to Brentwood, about 20 or 30 miles from San Francisco, and I bought 25 lots, like I was going to build 25 houses, except I drilled four gas wells, and those four gas wells in 18 months paid me enough money for me to buy the Dallas Cowboys.”
Assertion Contradicted
Charlie Munger Considered John D. Rockefeller's Standard Oil the Greatest Company
“Charlie Munger believes that Rockefeller built the greatest company of all time.”
Assertion Contradicted
Cornelius Vanderbilt bypassed slow lawsuits to personally ruin partners who cheated him
“He immediately dictated a short letter to both Morgan and Garrison. Gentlemen, you have undertaken to cheat me. I won't sue you, for the law is too slow. I'll ruin you. Yours truly, Cornelius Vanderbilt.”
Assertion Contradicted
The US Is Uniquely the Only Country With Private Mineral Rights
“America is the only country in the world in which the mineral rights underneath the ground, right, in which your, these wildcatters need to buy or to lease, are privately owned. Everywhere else, a state or a crown will hold the title.”
Assertion Contradicted
Japanese tire manufacturers captured nearly the entire market within two decades
“The Japanese go from, like, zero percent market share, and I think within, like, a decade, maybe even less than two decades, they essentially own the entire market.”
Assertion Contradicted
Paul Graham cites co-founder conflict as the top cause of startup breakups
“I think Paul Graham said the number one breakup of, in Y Combinator is not like external factors. It's actually co-founder conflict.”
Assertion Contradicted
James J. Hill built a profitable transcontinental railroad without bankruptcy
“He's the only entrepreneur in history to ever successfully build a profitable railroad without going into bankruptcy first.”
Assertion Contradicted
Luxury goods remain the largest export of the French economy
“I think the biggest export of the French economy to this day is luxury goods.”
Assertion Contradicted
Standard Oil chartered third-party ships to maintain the illusion of competition
“Why would an oil company in such an advantageous position charter ships from an outsider rather than operating ships of its own? The illusion of competition and decentralization has to be maintained. The U S government still had laws on the books dating from t…”
Assertion Contradicted
Schlitz jumped from fifth place to first after Claude Hopkins' campaign
“Schlitz jumped from fifth place to neck and neck with first place in a few months.”
Assertion Contradicted
Bill Bowerman's book 'Jogging' sold millions of copies and expanded Nike's market
“So this book called Jogging winds up selling millions of copies, and as a result, which again, I don't think was intentional, drastically expands the market for their products”
Assertion Contradicted
SpaceX removed Falcon 9's grid fin folding mechanism to reduce mass
“Falcon nine's grid fins were originally designed to fold like traditional aerospace grid fins. The folding mechanism reduced drag during ascent, which seemed obviously necessary. SpaceX questioned whether it was worth the mass and complexity. Simulations showe…”
Assertion Contradicted
Andre Agassi was the first former world number one to play Challengers
“There was no former number one in the world playing these challenger tournaments that he starts again at the very, very bottom.”
Assertion Contradicted
Red Bull operates with zero owned physical production facilities or warehouses
“Red Bull has no production facilities or warehouses.”
Assertion Contradicted
Rockefeller only agreed to meet Cornelius Vanderbilt inside his own Cleveland office
“And Rockefeller would only meet with Vanderbilt if Vanderbilt came to Cleveland and met Rockefeller inside of his office.”
Assertion Contradicted
Rockefeller's early borrowing primarily financed massive crude oil purchases at market lows
“The bulk of Rockefeller's borrowing in the early days went to buy crude. When the price dropped, he would make massive purchases.”
Assertion Contradicted
Rockefeller actively speculated in oil futures between 1867 and 1868
“So even though later on Rockefeller would say that he despised speculators early in his career, he speculated in oil futures and he may have not survived if he didn't do this. And speculating oil futures is a very tricky business. And it was so important to hi…”
Assertion Contradicted
Oracle Once Traded Software for Jets from Israeli Aircraft Industries
“Exotic barter deals were entered into in one Oracle was given a couple of jets by an Israeli aircraft industry by Israeli aircraft industries in exchange for software.”
Assertion Contradicted
Mid-2000s market makers spent hundreds of millions to shave microseconds
“By the mid-two thousand, market makers like Citadel were spending hundreds of millions of dollars on microwave towers and fiber optic cables in a bid to shave microseconds off execution times.”
Assertion Contradicted
Hetty Green holds the Guinness World Record as the greatest miser
“And in fact, she, to this day, she's in the Guinness book of world records as the world's greatest miser.”
Assertion Contradicted
Senra: Sam Walton approved $500M computer investment for Walmart in 1979
“And so in 1979, Sam Walton gives the go ahead to invest five hundred million dollars in 1979 dollars in the most advanced computer system of his day.”
Assertion Contradicted
Amancio Ortega Was Never Photographed Before Inditex Went Public
“So Ortega was never photographed. Only his friends, families, and coworkers knew what he looked like. This is before Into Texco's public.”
Assertion Contradicted
Senra: Pre-IPO Harvard case study on Inditex was read by two million people
“And so there was a Harvard case study written about Inditex before they went public that two million people read.”
Assertion Contradicted
Senra: No privately funded company reached orbit before SpaceX
“No privately funded company had ever succeeded at something like this before. And many had failed trying.”
Assertion Contradicted
Kreuger Pioneered Fixed-Date Construction Contracts in Europe
“Kroger and toll became the first firm in Europe to commit to finish projects by a fixed date.”
Assertion Contradicted
Walt Disney used secret buyers and false press leaks to buy land
“Not only does he use people secretly working for him to slowly buy up all the property, but then they actually launch a very effective disinformation campaign. They leaked to the local papers that Disney is planning an amusement park in the San Fernando Valley…”
Assertion Contradicted
Walt Disney drank eggs mixed with wine to manage TV broadcast anxiety
“Walt Disney had this, like, very clean-cut image, and in many cases, he thought it was somewhat of a contradiction, because, you know, he cursed. He smoked he chain-smoked cigarettes, and he drank, and so what's fascinating is before the show, they made this, …”
Assertion Contradicted
The US Navy deployed forces to remove William Walker at Vanderbilt's urging
“In reality, the Navy secretary at the request of the Secretary of State and the urging of Cornelius Vanderbilt had given Davis the job of ending the war by removing William Walker from Nicaragua.”
Assertion Contradicted
Cattle Rancher Pappy Waggoner Became Texas's First Billionaire Funding Oil Speculators
“So there's this guy named Pappy Wagoner, for example. He was Texas's first billionaire. He obviously made his money in, in cattle ranching, and then he takes that money and then actually founds a bank, and then he would fund a, it's kind of like angel investin…”
Assertion Contradicted
Over 100,000 printed biographies of Jesus exist in English alone
“Today, there are over 100,000 printed biographies of Jesus in English alone.”
Assertion Contradicted
Daniel Ludwig claimed he made more from his yacht than his supertankers
“And he said that he made more money from his yacht than all of his super tankers combined.”
Assertion Contradicted
Public auctions account for less than 20% of the global art market
“Most publicly reported prices come from auctions, but auctions Are estimated to account for less than 20% of the market.”