why aren't all 1,245 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public
record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 39 checkable
ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't;
assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card:
▮▮▮▮▮ certainty ·
▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Assertion Supported
MITS Forecast 800 Altair Sales Annually but Sold Thousands in Months
“He had forecast that they might find 800 customers a year willing to shell out the money for their own computer. Instead, in the first few months, they sold thousands again.”
Assertion Supported
Senra: Microsoft's Initial MITS Contract Granted Exclusive BASIC Sublicensing Rights
“The deal that they signed with MITS gave them the exclusive rights to sub-licensed R software to any other company that wanted to use the AD-AD basic in their products would have to get the source code, which he describes as the recipe to basic, through MITS a…”
Assertion Partly supported
Microsoft was the first software company to surpass $1B in annual sales
“Well, by 1990, Microsoft had become the first software company in history to sell more than a billion dollars worth of software in a single year.”
Assertion Partly supported
Microsoft Operated with Only 11 or 12 Employees Four Years In
“Four years in, and they had just 11 employees. I think they might have had 12 because they take that picture, that famous Microsoft picture when they're moving from Albuquerque to Seattle. And there's only 11 people in the photo, but I'm pretty sure there was …”
Assertion Supported
Microsoft Had $7M Revenue and Under 40 Employees Entering IBM Deal
“Now Microsoft, a company with seven million dollars in annual sales, had fewer than 40 employees, and was about to go into business with IBM, an international giant with revenues approaching thirty billion dollars a year.”
Assertion Not yet assessed · timeframe Sep 2025
At 30 employees, Microsoft had 28 programmers, a secretary, and Bill Gates
“When we got up to 30 employees, it was still just me, a secretary and 28 programmers. I wrote all the checks, answered the mail, took the phone calls.”
Assertion Supported
Gates sold 5% of Microsoft for $1M solely for VC expertise
“Bill sold five percent of Microsoft for a million dollars. Can you imagine? Five percent of million of Microsoft for a million dollars to TVI, which is technology venture investors. Microsoft did not need the venture capital. Gates was essentially hiring the f…”
Assertion Supported
Senra: Bill Gates refused to own a TV for years to focus on reading
“For many years, Gates had refused to even own a TV, preferring instead to spend his time reading books and magazines.”
Assertion Not yet assessed · timeframe Sep 2025
Senra: Bill Gates maintained a top-10 list of past mistakes to avoid repeating them
“He would keep a list of mistakes and it was a top 10 list. And he'd reread that to make sure they don't make the same mistakes in the future.”
Assertion Supported
Gates memorized employee license plates to monitor weekend attendance
“Bill had would go out and he'd memorize the license plates of the cars in the Microsoft parking lot in the early days.”
Assertion Supported
Gates rejected Ross Perot's mid-seven-figure Microsoft buyout offer in 1979
“Ross Perot tried to buy Microsoft in 1979 for quote, mid seven figures. And this is what Bill Gates said. Bill Gates said, no. I want to remain independent. Now keep in mind, Microsoft's revenue that year was just 2.4 million dollars.”
Assertion Supported
Steve Jobs adopted Edwin Land's arts and technology philosophy
“The idea is that you should build a company at the intersection of arts and technology. That is Edwin Land's idea. That is an idea that Steve Jobs learned from Edwin Land that Steve used when he was in his twenties, his thirties, his forties, until he died.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Jobs predicted every future computer would work like the Macintosh
“I remember the week before we launched the Mac, we all got together and we said, every computer is going to work this way. You cannot argue about that anymore. You can argue about how long it will take, but you can't argue about it anymore. It is inevitable.”
Assertion Supported
A Reed College dean secretly sheltered and funded Jobs after dropping out
“Jack looked the other way when I was staying on campus without paying. He looked the other way when I was taking classes without being a formal student and paying the tuition. And oftentimes when I was at the end of my rope, cause Steve was flat broke at this …”
Assertion Supported
Snow White's home video release generated $250 million profit decades later
“A few years ago, they released it on video and sold twenty eight million copies, making probably around a quarter billion dollars of profits 60 years after its initial release.”
Assertion Supported
Jobs raised Apple's market cap from $1.8B to $4B in one year
“And so in about a year, he raised Apple's market cap to four billion from 1.8 billion.”
Assertion Partly supported
Before Colin Chapman's sponsorships, F1 cars only used national colors
“Before Chapman had the idea to sell that paint job, to sell space on his cars to sponsors, F one cars were simply painted according to the nationality of the racing team.”
Assertion Supported
Colin Chapman's first sponsorship sparked $4.5B in F1 tobacco money
“He sold the first sponsored paint job was to, I think golden leaf tobacco. It was 85,000 dollars or 85,000 pounds for a year over the next few decades. The tobacco industry alone is gonna pour 4.5 billion. Into F-one.”
Assertion Supported
Two dozen drivers died in Formula One's first fifteen years
“Two dozen drivers were killed in the first 15 years of the series alone. Three had been at the wheel of one of Chapman's cars.”
Assertion Supported
Luxottica Transitions From Eyewear Sketch to Global Production in Three Weeks
“With its own designers, lasers, and massive machines, Luxottica can take a pencil sketch to global production in about three weeks.”
Assertion Supported
Luxottica Produces 400,000 Frames Daily Across 27,000 Active Models
“Luxottica has around 27,000 models in production at any one time. Its plants turn out 400,000 pairs of frames per day.”
Assertion Supported
Ray-Ban Generates Over $2 Billion Annually in Sales for Luxottica
“Ray-Ban is now the most valuable optical brand in the world, and it generates more than two billion a year in sales for Luxottica.”
Assertion Supported
Around 1.4 Billion People Globally Use EssilorLuxottica Eyewear Products
“Around 1.4 billion people use their products.”
Assertion Supported
Del Vecchio Secured a Smart Glasses Deal With Meta Before Dying
“And before he died, Delvecchio did the deal with Mark Zuckerberg to produce the glasses that Meta's making.”
Assertion Supported
Luxottica Tripled Eyewear Prices in Three Days at Its Debut Fair
“Every day of the fair, there is so much demand. That Luxottica increases the price every day within three days, their prices triple.”
Assertion Supported
Luxottica Booked Two Years of Production Orders at Its First Trade Fair
“By the time the fair is over, they have gathered orders. For two years of production, and they have no idea how they're going to keep up with all these requests.”
Assertion Partly supported
Giorgio Armani Traded a Licensing Deal for 5% Equity in Luxottica
“So this is where he signs that agreement and he insists to get five percent of the company. Delvecchio wisely gives him five percent of the company. Why is that important? Because Armani is another turning point for Delvecchio. Armani glasses alone. This is a …”
Assertion Partly supported
Ray-Ban Lost $50 Million Annually Before Luxottica Acquired and Revived It
“They're still doing five hundred million a year in revenue, but they're losing fifty million a year.”
Assertion Partly supported
Luxottica Increased Ray-Ban Sales Tenfold Following Its Acquisition
“He now sells more than 10 times the amount of Ray-Bans as when he bought the company.”
Assertion Supported
Luxottica and Essilor Executed a €50 Billion Merger to Dominate Eyewear
“Now, what was fascinating is when this deal comes together, it's announced Luxottica and Essilor have reached a fifty billion euro merger agreement. The world's largest lens manufacturer is tying the knot with its absolute leader in frames and eyewear sales.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Del Vecchio Tracked 1,500 Sales Reps' Daily Performance in His Eighties
“He says, I follow the performance of our 1500 reps every day.”
Assertion Supported
Michelin Grew From 12 Tires to 10,000 Cyclists in One Year
“They have 12 tires in stock at the close of the race. By the end of the following year, 10,000 French bicycle riders are using Michelin tires.”
Assertion Supported
Michelin Brothers Built and Raced The Lightning to Showcase Their Tires
“They build their own car called the lightning and they drove it themselves in one of the longest car races in Europe. It was the first car ever raced using Michelin tires.”
Assertion Partly supported
The Michelin Brothers Invented the Accordion-Style Folding Road Map
“The accordion style maps that used to be in like every single car, that device of making it easy to fold and unfold. They, the Michelin brothers invented that.”
Assertion Supported
Michelin Gave Away Its Famous Travel Guide Free for Twenty Years
“The guide was given away for free for the first 20 years of its existence.”
Assertion Supported
Rockefeller Grew Wealthier in Retirement Because Automobiles Spiked Petroleum Demand
“Rockefeller's likely the richest person on in the world at the time he retired, but he actually got richer and wealthier in retirement than he did when he was working because somebody else invented a technology that created more demand for his product.”
Assertion Supported
Ferrero sells approximately $3 billion worth of Nutella annually
“Ferraro is rumored to sell about three billion dollars a year of Nutella.”
Assertion Supported
Michele Ferrero placed a Madonna shrine in every factory and office
“In fact, he had a shrine of Madonna placed in every single factory and office, no matter how big the company got.”
Assertion Partly supported
Ferrero captured over 70% of the global chocolate hazelnut spread market
“The boy who started as an apprentice in the family and the family pastry shop had built over half a century, an empire spanning 20 factories worldwide, selling products in over a 160 countries. Utterly dominating with over 70% of the world's market for chocola…”
Assertion Partly supported
Ferrero products cost an average of 50% more than competing products
“So his products average, they cost about 50% more than their competitors.”
Assertion Supported
Ferrero gained a competitive advantage using rural workforces and free buses
“He built up an advantage over his competitors by using this rural workforce model. This is what I mentioned earlier. So instead of central, centralizing operations inside a big city, he actually employed people from nearby rural towns. This allowed them to sta…”
Assertion Partly supported
Ferrero used approximately 110 differently named secret entities to conceal operations
“I think at one point, They had like a 110 different like name companies that were like named something different, but all owned by Ferrero.”
Assertion Supported
Renaissance Technologies has generated over $100 billion in total profit
“Renaissance technologies, which goes on to make over a hundred billion dollars in profit and continues to make what I hear billions of dollars in profit every year to this day”
Assertion Supported
Tamara Mellon's father scaled and sold Vidal Sassoon for $72 million
“He did a bunch of businesses that probably the business business biggest success was the fact that her dad had helped scale and build Vidal Sassoon. So they just sold right before they found Jimmy Choo, a few years before they sold found Jimmy Choo, he had jus…”
Assertion Supported
Jimmy Choo achieved $250,000 in first-year sales with just one employee
“Our sales for the first year were 250,000 dollars. And the shop cost us 15,000 and the only, there's only one employee other than Sandra and myself.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Kate Winslet's Oscar mention of Jimmy Choo drove a major sales spike
“Kate Winslet, who was nominated for best actress for Titanic that year, she mentions that she's wearing Jimmy, Jimmy Choo shoes. That has such a positive effect on sales that going forward, Oscar night was a huge focus.”
Assertion Supported
Jimmy Choo's iconic Sex and the City placement was entirely free
“Manufacturers of everything pay fortunes for product placement in movies and TV. We got this huge call out entirely for free. Why? The show's creator said she put the reference in the script because she'd been in London and stopped by the store on Mottcombe St…”
Assertion Partly supported
Jimmy Choo sold his 50 percent brand stake for $8 million
“Jimmy sells his 50% share for around eight to ten million dollars to Phoenix equity partners. And he leaves the business.”