why aren't all 1,245 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public
record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 39 checkable
ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't;
assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card:
▮▮▮▮▮ certainty ·
▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Assertion Contradicted
Rockefeller only agreed to meet Cornelius Vanderbilt inside his own Cleveland office
“And Rockefeller would only meet with Vanderbilt if Vanderbilt came to Cleveland and met Rockefeller inside of his office.”
Assertion Supported
Early oil refineries cost about $1,000 to start with minimal staff
“So when he gets into the oil refining business, it has no barriers to entry costs about a thousand dollars to start a refinery and only requires a few people to run it.”
Assertion Supported
Shipping oil initially cost more than refining it
“It costs more to ship a barrel of oil than to refine it.”
Assertion Not yet assessed · timeframe Nov 2025
Water freight was 50% cheaper than rail for early oil refiners
“Shipping by water was 50% cheaper than shipping by rail.”
Assertion Supported
John D. Rockefeller owned a world-leading oil refinery at age 25
“A few weeks later, the newspapers announced his new partnership, revealing who had backed his bid, and the news that Rockefeller is, at 25 years old, an owner of one of the largest refineries in the world.”
Assertion Supported
Rockefeller remained silent in meetings to collect information from counterparties
“He wanted to collect information and never give any information. He sat quiet in meetings. He encouraged his partners to quote, let the other fellow talk.”
Assertion Supported
Rockefeller personally studied the full oil supply chain to out-research competitors
“Rockefeller collected more information than anybody else. He studied all sides of the oil industry. He traveled to the oil regions and got to know the business from that end. He talked to producers, the men who drew oil from the ground, to the people that carr…”
Assertion Contradicted
Rockefeller's early borrowing primarily financed massive crude oil purchases at market lows
“The bulk of Rockefeller's borrowing in the early days went to buy crude. When the price dropped, he would make massive purchases.”
Assertion Supported
Rockefeller tasked Henry Flagler with a single focus on transportation costs
“Rockefeller gives Flagler one job. You see how he keeps doing this over and over again. You are going to focus on your top priority. What does he want Flagler to focus on? Concentrate fully on our highest priority transportation. Flagler had a single objective…”
Assertion Supported
Rockefeller capped dividends to retain profits inside Standard Oil
“The final element in Rockefeller, Rockefeller strategy is that only a fraction of the profits would be distributed as dividends among the five stockholders. He wanted the rest retained in the business.”
Assertion Contradicted
Rockefeller actively speculated in oil futures between 1867 and 1868
“So even though later on Rockefeller would say that he despised speculators early in his career, he speculated in oil futures and he may have not survived if he didn't do this. And speculating oil futures is a very tricky business. And it was so important to hi…”
Assertion Supported
Standard Oil targeted Erie Railroad for rebates because it needed traffic
“So when they think about who to target for the largest possible rebates, they concentrate on the Erie railroad. Why? Because it was one of the smaller railroads at the time and therefore more hungry for traffic. This deal at Rockefeller is going to work out wi…”
Assertion Supported
Railroad rebates added $50,000 in annual profit to Rockefeller in the 1860s
“So these rebates are adding 50,000 dollars a year in profit each year at a time when most other refiners Couldn't even break even. Most of them were losing money.”
Assertion Supported
Rockefeller refined 1,500 barrels daily while shipping 4,200 through his freight contracts
“Rockefeller's company is refining about 1500 barrels a day, but they're shipping 4200 barrels a day.”
Assertion Supported
Rockefeller overpaid $150,000 for Oliver Payne's company to acquire political connections
“He approaches a guy named Oliver Payne, and he offers to buy his company for 400,000 dollars and to give him a position in Standard Oil. The company was only worth 250,000, but Payne came from a politically connected family in Cleveland, and Payne's connection…”
Assertion Supported
Standard Oil built its empire by secretly acquiring refiners under original names
“Rockefeller would buy the companies, but you'd have them operate as if nothing had changed. They'd keep the same name. No connection to standard would ever be revealed publicly. The hidden company was a technique that Standard would use to build its empire. Th…”
Assertion Supported
Crude producer boycott slashed Standard Oil workforce from 1,200 to 70
“When there was a boycott organized by companies taking crude out of the ground against Rockefeller, they essentially shut off his supplies to his raw materials. This goes on for several months. It's so drastic. It takes standard oil's employee count from 1200 …”
Assertion Supported
Rockefeller received daily inventory and shipment reports anywhere in the world
“Regardless of where he was in the world, every day he received a sheet that listed how much crude oil they had on hand, the number of barrels, the total number of gallons of refined that were shipped the previous day and any other vital statistic of the busine…”
Assertion Partly supported
Standard Oil accounted for 65% of all Pennsylvania Railroad traffic
“At the time, Rockefeller accounted for 65% of all traffic on the Pennsylvania railroad.”
Assertion Supported
Ellison Was Embarrassed by His Performance as Early Oracle CEO
“A huge chunk of this book is Ellison being embarrassed by his performance as CEO of his own company for the first decade and a half of its existence.”
Assertion Supported
Ellison's Original Goal for Oracle Was $10M Revenue and 50 Employees
“My original goal was to build a company doing about 10, ten million dollars a year in revenue and employing about 50 people.”
Assertion Supported
Oracle Named Its First Database Release Version 2 to Project Maturity
“The first version of our database was called Oracle version two.”
Assertion Supported
Don Lucas Arranged a Loan for Oracle After Ellison Refused Equity
“Even though he wouldn't, Larry wouldn't sell him equity, he actually helps arrange a loan for Larry Ellison and the company.”
Assertion Supported
Tech Press Originally Claimed Relational Databases Would Never Be Useful
“The technical press at the time was saying that the relational database would never be useful.”
Assertion Supported
Oracle Created Phantom Revenue by Booking Multi-Year Software Contracts Upfront
“The sales teams would often book multi-year contracts upfront. They would recognize the revenue immediately for software that wouldn't be delivered or paid for months or years. And in many cases, never paid for it. So this is, this led to what they call phanto…”
Assertion Contradicted
Oracle Once Traded Software for Jets from Israeli Aircraft Industries
“Exotic barter deals were entered into in one Oracle was given a couple of jets by an Israeli aircraft industry by Israeli aircraft industries in exchange for software.”
Assertion Supported
Ellison Faced Margin Calls After Borrowing Heavily Against Oracle Shares
“He had borrowed heavily against his shares, That had now slumped to a point where he faced the equivalent of a margin call from his creditors.”
Assertion Supported
Ellison Secured an $80M Loan from Nippon Steel to Avoid Dilution
“Instead of surrendering equity in Oracle to pay off the banks, Ellison has secured a deal that gave him an eighty million dollar loan on highly favorable terms. He does this by going to Japan, which their economy was doing great at the time. So in exchange for…”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Oracle Planned a $5M Energy Center for Only $10M in Sales
“A prime example was something called the energy center of excellence. This was intended as a place to showcase Oracle software for the energy industry. Ellison uncovered plans to spend millions of dollars to run the center. So I asked how much energy software …”
Assertion Supported
Oracle Previously Operated 70 Separate HR Databases to Track Employee Headcount
“Oracle had 70 separate HR systems, each with its own database. To find out how many people worked at Oracle, you had to look into 70 separate databases.”
Assertion Supported
Senra: Huang told early NVIDIA staff monthly they were 30 days from bankruptcy
“One example earlier in their history says that each monthly company meeting Jensen would say we're 30 days from going out of business.”
Assertion Supported
Senra: In 1997 Intel generated 860 times more revenue than NVIDIA
“At the time he just said this, he's telling his company, we're gonna go kill Intel. At that time, Intel was 860 times larger than NVIDIA in terms of revenue.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Senra: Jensen Huang reads about 100 employee status emails daily
“Every day he would read about a hundred top five emails to get a snapshot of what was happening within the company.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Jensen Huang uses 'LUA' to stop rambling employees and demand answers
“When an employee starts rambling, Jensen will say Lua. Lua is a warning sign that Jensen's patience is growing thin. When he says it, Jensen wants the employee to stop and do three things. Number one, listen to the question. Number two, understand the question…”
Assertion Supported
Thomas Peterffy is the 23rd richest person in the world
“Peterfi is the 23rd richest person in the world.”
Assertion Supported
Interactive Brokers is valued at over $100 billion
“His second act interactive brokers is worth over a hundred billion dollars.”
Assertion Supported
Thomas Peterffy led a team of 80 financial programmers by 1976
“By 1976, he commanded a team of 80 programmers, one of the largest financial coding operations in the world.”
Assertion Supported
Peterffy bought an American Stock Exchange seat for $36,000 in 1977
“So Petrfi is going to leave Jarecki and start on his own in 1977 with 200,000 dollars in savings. Peterfi left and bought a seat on the American stock exchange for 36,000 dollars.”
Assertion Supported
Peterffy coded colored light displays to bypass NYSE floor screen rules
“On Monday morning, he rewrote the code, creating a psychedelic light show that his traders could read from across the room and put on that giant screen that's 30 feet from the action.”
Assertion Supported
Timber Hill generated $25 million in 1987 and $50 million in 1988
“Timber Hill made twenty-five million dollars that year, and fifty million dollars the following year.”
Assertion Supported
Peterffy rejected a $900 million Goldman Sachs offer, demanding $3 billion
“Goldman Sachs made repeated acquisition offers that climbed to as high as nine hundred million dollars. Peterfee turned them all down. When pressed for his price, he said three billion dollars, a quiet way of ending the conversation.”
Assertion Contradicted
Mid-2000s market makers spent hundreds of millions to shave microseconds
“By the mid-two thousand, market makers like Citadel were spending hundreds of millions of dollars on microwave towers and fiber optic cables in a bid to shave microseconds off execution times.”
Assertion Supported
Peterffy owned nearly 100% of Interactive Brokers prior to IPO
“The IPO wasn't about raising capital. He owned close to a hundred percent of the business having built it with Timber Hills cashflow.”
Assertion Partly supported
Peterffy saved $80 million in banking fees through a Dutch auction IPO
“Rather than pay the substantial fees demanded by investment banks, he chose a Dutch auction and hired an obscure firm to list 10% of his business. This saved him eighty million dollars.”
Assertion Supported
Thomas Peterffy still owns nearly 70% of Interactive Brokers at age 81
“In 2019 on his 75th birthday, he stepped down as CEO, but retirement is out of the question. He's 81, chairman of Interactive Brokers, still owns nearly 70% of the business”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Thomas Peterffy made $1.7 billion during his three-hour podcast interview
“During the three hours we talked, Peterfee had made 1.7 billion.”
Assertion Supported
Gates and Allen searched C-Cube dumpsters at night for code
“At the end of every day, someone would take out the trash included in that trash would be used computer paper printed with lines of code, whatever the C cubed engineers are working on that day at night when the employees had all gone home. Paul and I went out …”
Assertion Supported
Sony's In-House Product Critic Rose to Become Company President
“That paid critic that starts out as a college student eventually becomes the president of Sony.”