why aren't all 23 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public
record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable
ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't;
assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card:
▮▮▮▮▮ certainty ·
▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Insight
Thiel: Great startups resemble cults, but are fanatically right instead of wrong
“The best startups might be considered slightly less extreme kinds of cults. The biggest difference is that cults tend to be fanatically wrong about something important. People at a successful startup are fanatically right about something those on the outside w…”
Insight
Phil Knight: Advisers who urge entrepreneurs to never give up are charlatans
“And those who urge entrepreneurs to never give up? Charlatans. Sometimes you have to give up. Sometimes knowing when to give up, when to try something else is genius. Giving up doesn't mean stopping. Don't ever stop.”
Assertion Supported
Mike Agassi gave ten-year-old Andre speed before a national tennis tournament
“Sure enough, at the Nationals, my father gives me a pill. Hold out your hand, he says. This will help you. Take it. He puts a pill in my palm. Tiny, white, and round.”
Insight
Dietrich Mateschitz: Red Bull is an efficiency product; taste does not matter
“It's not just another flavored sugar water differentiated by color or taste or flavor. It is an efficiency product. I'm talking about improving endurance, concentration, reaction time, speed, vigilance, and emotional status. Taste is of no importance whatsoeve…”
Opinion
Ellison: Microsoft Software Is Rarely First-Rate and Never Innovates
“Microsoft software is rarely first rate. They never ever innovate, but they're good copiers.”
Insight
Huang: Public criticism optimizes company-wide learning over avoiding embarrassment
“I give feedback in front of everybody. Feedback is learning. For what reason are you the only person who should learn from this? We should all learn from that opportunity. I don't take people aside. We are not optimizing for not embarrassing somebody. We're op…”
Opinion
Jobs: Microsoft makes pedestrian, third-rate products that have no spirit
“I have no problem with their success. I have a problem that they make really third rate products. Their products have no spirit to them. They are very pedestrian. They are McDonald's.”
What-if
Jobs's audited calligraphy class brought proportionally spaced fonts to computers
“If I had never dropped in on that single course in college, the Mac would never have had multiple typefaces or proportionally spaced fonts, and since Windows just copied the Mac, it's likely that no personal computer would have them either.”
Insight
Munger: Businesses are ruined by bloat, not excessive downsizing
“If you put it in reverse, you say name a business that has been ruined because it was over downsized. I cannot think of a single one, but if you asked me to name businesses that were half ruined or ruined by bloat, I could rattle off name after name after name…”
Insight
Jensen Huang advocates for public employee criticism to maximize company learning
“Jensen was a big proponent of public criticism, talked about the fact that you should criticize publicly because it should be a learning experience for the entire company. If you criticize privately, only you and that individual employee actually learned the l…”
Assertion Contradicted
High IQ is the CEO trait most correlated with organizational success
“The CEO trait most closely correlated with organizational success is a high IQ.”
Insight
Sam Zell: The Definition of an Idiot Is Reaching Your Goals
“The true test of an entrepreneur is someone who spends his life constantly testing his limits. The definition of an idiot is someone who has reached his goals.”
Opinion
MrBeast Memo: 99% of Movies and TV Shows Would Flop on YouTube
“99% of movies or TV shows would flop on YouTube. On top of that, they would be wildly unprofitable, have no flexibility in long lead times that can't adapt to trends.”
Insight
Steve Jobs: Softening Critical Feedback Prioritizes Likability Over Work Quality
“Steve said this brutally brilliant, insightful thing. He said, no, Johnny, you're just really vain. You just want people to like you. I'm surprised at you. I thought you held the work up as the most important, not how you believe you were being perceived by ot…”
Insight
Nick Sleep argues diversification increases investment risk when certain knowledge is scarce
“We would propose that if knowledge is a source of value add and few things can be known for sure, then it logically follows that owning more stocks does not lower risk, but raises it.”
Insight
Bezos: Cross-team communication is a defect that should be eliminated
“If we wanted Amazon to be a place where builders can build, we need to eliminate communication, not encourage it.”
Insight
Munger: Effective decision-making requires concentrating power in one person, not democracy
“In a democracy, everyone takes turns. But if you really want a lot of wisdom, it's better to concentrate decisions and process in one person.”
Insight
Thiel: Superior sales alone can create a monopoly without product differentiation
“Superior sales and distribution by itself can create a monopoly, even with no product differentiation. The converse is not true.”
Insight
Graham: Big companies win by sucking less, not building great products
“This is not a problem for big companies because they don't win by making great products. Big companies win by sucking less than other big companies.”
Insight
Graham: Aesthetic taste is actually objective and improves with practice
“Saying that taste is just personal preference is a good way to prevent disputes. The trouble is it's not true. You feel this when you start to design things, whatever job people do, they naturally want to do it better. Football players like to win games. CEOs …”
Insight
Senra: Great founders have near-zero introspection once they know their goals
“Many of the great founders, once that they know what they want to do, I would argue that they actually have very low levels of introspection to like almost no introspection. And the reason that is important is because low introspection equals more action.”
Insight
Jensen Huang: Long Working Hours Are a Prerequisite for Excellence
“People who train for the Olympics grumble about training early in the morning too. Jensen was sending a message. Long hours were a necessary prerequisite for excellence.”
Assertion Contradicted
Psychiatrist David Shaffer claims his ex-wife Anna Wintour is incapable of empathy
“Her ex-husband, whose name's David Schaefer, he's the psychiatrist. He's been on record. He says that a lot of people debate, like, does Anna have the ability to empathize with other people? And he says very clearly that Anna is not capable of empathy.”